Does the Bin of History Beckon?

01.08.26

Mark Perryman examines the prospects for Farage vs Binface

Is a self-styled aristocrat with a dustbin for his head the stuff of Nigel Farage's worst political nightmare?  There's plenty who would like to think so, but the only ones who can make Farage's nightmare, our dream, come true are the voters of Clacton-on-Sea come polling day, Thursday 13 August.

The Reform Party leader, or more correctly, sole owner, had planned the by-election as rebel with a cause vs the political establishment, or more accurately everyone else. As allegations mounted of multi-million-pound donations which seemed destined for his back pocket Farage played the victim while declaring in classic populist style 'let the people' decide, in his favour, naturally.  

But in an avalanche of cross-party co-operation Labour, Tories, Lib-Dems, Greens all declared Farage's manoeuvre as nothing more than a stunt to draw attention away from the far more important matter of the donations never having been declared. Even Farage's deadliest political rival, Rupert Lowe MP, formerly of Reform now striking out on his own with the Restore Britain party and chipping away at Reform support from the right, joined the boycott. 

So, can Binface do it, finish off Farage's political career?

On the surface it doesn't look impossible. In 2024 Farage had an 8500 majority. Not a marginal, but not exactly safe either. His vote 21,225, add up all the parties' votes from 2024 not standing, total 24,219. Easy-peasy?  Yes, but by far the biggest chunk are Tory voters, 12,820, and presumably the least likely to get the joke and vote for a dustbin vs a man who they politically agree with more than most.    

To counter such despondency, we get into the realm of speculation. Turnout in Clacton at the General Election was 58%. A by-election in mid-August won't be anywhere near that. Makerfield was, with the 'Burnham Bounce' 58.8%, Gorton and Denton 47.6%, considerably less so. 

Clacton has had to endure Farage for a bit over two years now as their representative.  Local reports characterise him as not a good constituency MP, a place that has the feel of 'off the map' resenting his grandstanding for himself not them. But would a bin do any better?  

The hope is that the temptation to put two fingers up to Farage's self-centred political ambition with the most dramatic by-election result ever will override all other considerations and reservations. Maybe, but hopes aren't exactly high.  

However for Farage this remains a lose-lose campaign.  He had counted on humiliating his sworn enemy, the 'political establishment.' Instead, as in Rachel Reeves' immortal words when signing off Farage's resignation as an MP to trigger the by-election: "If he wants to spend the summer arguing with a bin, I won't stop him."   In a contest of Farage vs Binface, there's only one winner, and it isn't Nigel. Add the very strong possibility of a reduced majority and not only humiliation but even worse for a man with the size of inflated ego Farage possesses, endless ridicule.  You lost votes to a dustbin, really?!  

Yet behind all the joking around at Farage's expense there's a serious political point to be made.

Official Labour Party eve-of-vote campaign materials

Reform lost the Makerfield, Gorton and Denton by-elections and the Caerphilly Welsh Parliament by-election.  All three Labour defences of previously Labour safe seats. The three seats won by three different parties: Plaid Cymru, Greens and Labour.  In both Caerphilly and Gorton Labour made entirely spurious claims, right up to polling day, that 'Only Labour can beat Reform here'.  This wasn't an error, the Labour canvassing returns would have provided the campaign with the real picture, to make such false claims isn't just demeaning with a Reform defeat at stake dangerous. Yes, yes, other parties do the same. Doesn't make it right.

Starmer's Labour ' landslide 'in 2024, y'know the one based on a 33.7% share of the vote, just 1.6% more than Corbyn's Labour vote share in 2019. 6.3% down on Corbyn's in 2017, was of course anything but. Instead, it was a highly disciplined campaign to bypass 'non-battleground seats' that Labour couldn't win but the Lib Dems could, with the Lib Dems returning the favour in Labour targets they couldn't win. Add Reform actively contesting every Tory-held seat whereas in 2019 its predecessor the Brexit Party stood down in every Tory seat but contested all Labour seats.  Landslide? Or Tactical win?

Binface victory or no Binface victory in Clacton, the likelihood remains Reform will be a serious challenger at the 2029 General Election. Yet the chances of an electoral pact to stop Farage are next to zero. And a resurgent left-leaning Green Party threatening to take Labour seats further complicates matters. Nevertheless, a non-battleground seats operation remains the most likely way to stop Reform. 

Reform's Top 50 target seats (see here) consist of an almost equal split: 27 Labour, 23 Tory. In almost every case a 'non-campaign' by those opposition parties destined to finish third or worse in these seats would seriously reduce Reform's chances of winning these first 50 seats. Allied with a well-organised and independent tactical voting campaign, if this combo can work in Reform's top target seats the impact will be multiplied many times over in those further down the list it needs to win and, deep breath, form the next government. 

Either that, or we leave it to Binface to mop up the mess. 

Just £9.95 'Put Farage in the Dustbin of History' T-shirt is available from Philosophy Football here.   

Mark Perryman is the co-founder of the self-styled 'sporting outfitters of intellectual distinction' AKA Philosophy Football